🔗 Share this article Elections Underway in Holland as Polls Point to Potential Repeat Victory for Geert Wilders The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition. Survey Results and Election Dynamics The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives. However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals. Key Contenders and Forecasts Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats. Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22. The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines. Electoral System and Fragmentation In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament. This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years. Government Formation Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid. While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right. Voting Process Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time. After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.